Possible scenario
Temporary Tactical Pause
30% Chance
The order becomes a short-term effort to defuse criticism from police departments, employers, and moderate Republicans rather than a lasting policy change. ICE continues criminal-priority operations while DHS studies the political and operational costs of broader raids.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- GEO-1.2%
- MAR+0.6%
- HLT+0.5%
- TSN+0.4%
- +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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