Possible scenario
Durable Enforcement Pullback
40% Chance
DHS sustains the order and directs ICE field offices to prioritize immigrants with criminal convictions, pending charges, or public-safety flags. The shift likely reflects political backlash from employers, local police, and courts after months of noncriminal arrests disrupted communities and labor supply.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Tickers
- GEO-2.7%
- CXW-2.3%
- MAR+1.2%
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.