Possible scenario
Backlash Forces Reversal
20% Chance
Immigration hardliners, border-state officials, and conservative media frame the DHS order as a retreat from Trump’s enforcement agenda. The White House could narrow or reverse the directive, reviving uncertainty for employers that rely heavily on immigrant labor.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
- +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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