Possible scenario
Partial Intelligence Restriction
25% Chance
Washington may respond to Zelenskyy's confirmation by imposing a narrow restriction on intelligence related to long-range strikes inside Russia, while preserving support for battlefield operations and air defense. This would be a controlled pressure tactic rather than a full rupture.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.