Possible scenario
Managed US-Ukraine Compromise
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a negotiated understanding that preserves U.S. intelligence support while narrowing Ukraine's use of U.S.-enabled data for attacks on Russian refineries. Zelenskyy has incentives to avoid a repeat of the March 2025 intelligence suspension, while Trump can claim he restrained energy-market escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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