Possible scenario
Full Intelligence Cutoff
15% Chance
A renewed Ukrainian refinery strike could trigger a broader U.S. intelligence suspension, echoing the March 2025 episode. This would be a significant deterioration in U.S.-Ukraine coordination and would likely raise near-term geopolitical stress, even if it reduces the frequency of refinery attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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