Possible scenario
Wider Network Evidence
18% Chance
Saudi or Israeli officials uncover communications suggesting the co-pilot had external handlers or logistical support. The finding increases perceived aviation-terrorism risk, especially on Israel-Gulf routes, but remains below a regional crisis unless additional plots are confirmed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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