Possible scenario
Expanded Aviation Controls
25% Chance
Israel treats the case as a credible aviation-terrorism warning around the October 7 anniversary period. Ben Gurion adds secondary screening for some Gulf-origin crews and passengers, causing delays but not a full route shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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