Possible scenario
Contained Security Case
45% Chance
Israeli, Saudi and Emirati officials conclude the co-pilot had pre-existing intent before joining Flydubai but find no operational cell inside the airline. Aviation security remains elevated around Ben Gurion and Gulf routes, but travel disruption is limited.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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