Possible scenario
Contained Legal Fallout
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the German court treats the defense admission as important but narrows responsibility to a small Ukrainian military or intelligence cell. Berlin, Kyiv, and NATO move quickly to separate the criminal case from current Ukraine security assistance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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