Possible scenario
Sustained Cargo Recovery
42% Chance
LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalize as naval escorts, insurer confidence, and Qatar loading schedules stabilize. The market treats the rebound as evidence that the September 28 attacks did not create a durable blockade risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Utilities +0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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