Possible scenario
Renewed Hormuz Escalation
20% Chance
The rebound in LNG shipments proves temporary as Iran or aligned forces resume attacks on commercial shipping. Because Hormuz remains central to Qatari LNG and Gulf liquids exports, even a limited strike would quickly reprice energy and geopolitical risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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