Possible scenario
Fragile Normalization Persists
28% Chance
Shipments remain elevated, but the market does not fully price in a return to normal because Iran-linked harassment, drones, and mines remain plausible. LNG keeps moving, yet voyage planning and insurance stay more expensive than before the war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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