Possible scenario
Security Clampdown
25% Chance
Clayton shifts White House AI policy toward intelligence-driven safeguards, export controls and security reviews. This would be a modest negative for broad technology shares but supportive for defense AI vendors with classified-government access.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA-2.0%
- -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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