Possible scenario
Sand Narrow Win
25% Chance
Sand still wins, but the race tightens sharply as national partisan alignment and Republican turnout return late in the campaign. This produces a weaker mandate and likely leaves the Iowa Legislature as the central check on his agenda.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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