Possible scenario
Republican Comeback
18% Chance
Despite Sand’s 88% implied odds, the Republican nominee consolidates the party after the primary and benefits from stronger-than-expected rural turnout. A national Republican environment or a damaging late campaign issue could make the race competitive again.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.