Possible scenario
Sanctions Expand
15% Chance
Washington could use the reward notice as a bridge to broader enforcement, adding facilitators, front companies, or infrastructure providers to sanctions lists. This would still be a targeted cyber action rather than a broad trade-policy shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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