Possible scenario
Major Escalation
20% Chance
The razing of towns becomes the trigger for a wider Israel-Hezbollah military exchange. Israeli airstrikes deepen into Lebanon, Hezbollah expands rocket and drone fire, and markets price a higher probability of broader regional disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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