Possible scenario
Ceasefire Rebuilt
35% Chance
Washington, Paris, Beirut, and the UN push Israel and Hezbollah back toward the April ceasefire framework. Israel slows demolitions, Hezbollah limits retaliation, and UNIFIL plus the Lebanese Armed Forces expand patrols south of the Litani River.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Energy -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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