Possible scenario
Border War Grinds
30% Chance
The ceasefire survives formally but becomes hollow in practice. Israel continues engineering works and controlled demolitions, while Hezbollah answers with limited anti-tank missiles, drones, and short-range rockets rather than a full campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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