Possible scenario
Retaliation Escalates
21% Chance
Saudi leaders respond to the warning failure and repeated attacks with a sharper military posture against Houthi launch sites. This path raises oil-risk premia and defense-sector expectations, but the market move depends on whether retaliation remains limited to Yemen or spreads toward Iran-linked assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.