Possible scenario
New Houthi Strike
28% Chance
The Houthis exploit the perception of Saudi warning-system weakness and attempt another high-profile missile or drone attack. This is the highest-risk path for markets because it would turn a governance failure into evidence of persistent vulnerability at airports and energy sites.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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