Possible scenario
Taiwan Strait Signaling
19% Chance
China treats the long-term energy deal as part of a U.S.-Taiwan resilience strategy rather than a purely commercial LNG contract. The outcome depends on whether Beijing limits itself to diplomatic protest or adds military, cyber, or trade pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Technology -0.7%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.