Possible scenario
License-Managed Progress
25% Chance
Washington allows the project to continue but keeps strict controls on payments, equipment transfer, and PDVSA access to hard currency. This outcome fits the recent pattern of selective U.S. permission for oil-and-gas activity without a full normalization of Venezuela sanctions.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- BKR+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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