Possible scenario
Wet Winter Benefits
24% Chance
The emergency declaration proves useful but the winter ultimately delivers more benefits than damage, refilling reservoirs and building Sierra snowpack. Flooding still occurs, but markets focus on improved water supply, lower drought risk, and manageable insured losses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.6%
- Finance +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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