Possible scenario
Severe Managed Storms
42% Chance
The most likely path is a damaging but broadly managed winter, with repeated atmospheric rivers causing flooding, debris flows, and road closures without a statewide infrastructure breakdown. Early emergency authority lets California pre-position Cal OES, Caltrans, and National Guard resources, limiting the economic spillover.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.1%
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Finance -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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