Possible scenario
Selloff Tests Credibility
22% Chance
Investors question whether Takaichi’s issuance cap can survive budget politics and higher debt-service costs. A further rise in the super-long yield forces officials to consider stronger coordination between the Cabinet, Ministry of Finance and BOJ.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.5%
- Technology -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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