Possible scenario
Pledge Stabilizes JGBs
38% Chance
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi follows the debt pledge with enough detail on annual issuance limits to reassure domestic institutions. The Ministry of Finance leans on buyback timing and auction communication rather than emergency intervention, keeping the move from becoming a broader funding scare.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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