Possible scenario
BOJ Guides Normalization
27% Chance
The Bank of Japan treats the record 30-year yield as part of the post-negative-rate adjustment rather than a disorderly market break. Officials use speeches and bond-buying guidance to separate gradual normalization from fiscal stress.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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