Possible scenario
Temporary Policy Freeze
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the cutoff is a temporary restriction tied to US rules of engagement, export controls, or contract language rather than a durable strategic break. Washington, Kyiv, and SpaceX have incentives to keep Starlink operational while limiting the most escalatory drone missions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Telecommunications +0.3%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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