Possible scenario
Oversight Probe Escalates
28% Chance
Democrats use the donor lawsuit and State Department probe to broaden requests for testimony and communications. The matter remains politically significant but still looks like a targeted ethics and influence inquiry rather than a market-moving government crisis.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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