Possible scenario
Narrow Records Compliance
42% Chance
The State Department and its inspector general provide a limited set of emails, payment records, and ethics-review materials to House Democrats. The inquiry remains focused on Kimberly Guilfoyle’s disputed $100,000 donor payment rather than becoming a broader Trump-family business probe.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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