Possible scenario
Wider NATO Friction
20% Chance
The balloon campaign spreads or is copied along other NATO borders with Belarus and Russia, increasing the sense that Minsk and Moscow are probing alliance responses. NATO remains cautious, but Baltic and Polish air-defense postures become more visible.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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