Possible scenario
Lithuanian Retaliation
25% Chance
Lithuania responds with tougher border controls, selective closures, and pressure for new EU sanctions on Belarusian officials and logistics operators. The response is coercive but non-military, designed to raise costs for Minsk without triggering a direct confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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