Possible scenario
Funding Window Narrows
25% Chance
The CDS move begins to affect primary-market behavior, with investors asking whether AI revenue can support the next wave of data-center leverage. Issuers can still borrow, but only with higher coupons, shorter maturities, or more protective covenants.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.5%
- Finance -0.8%
- Utilities -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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