Possible scenario
Negotiated Pause
21% Chance
Oman, Qatar and possibly the EU broker a temporary pause that separates shipping access from the broader nuclear dispute. Iran does not concede enrichment demands, but it may accept a face-saving arrangement to reduce military pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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