Possible scenario
Blockade Stalemate
38% Chance
Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed while avoiding a direct, large-scale exchange with U.S. forces. Washington expands naval escorts and sanctions enforcement, but neither side accepts terms that would quickly restore normal shipping.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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