Possible scenario
Rollback Takes Effect
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Trump administration finalizes and implements the lower 34.5 MPG fuel-economy standard with only limited technical changes. Automakers adjust product plans toward profitable trucks, SUVs, hybrids, and lower-cost compliance strategies while pure-play EV makers face a weaker federal demand signal.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Energy +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
- Utilities -0.1%
Tickers
- F+3.7%
- RIVN-3.6%
- -3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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