Possible scenario
Political Reversal Risk
15% Chance
Fuel-efficiency policy remains politically unstable, especially if Congress or the 2028 campaign reopens the issue. Markets begin to price a higher probability that the 34.5 MPG standard is temporary rather than a durable regulatory settlement.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- LCID+1.6%
- F+1.1%
- STLA+1.1%
- GMM.USD+0.9%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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