Possible scenario
Trump Doubles Down
20% Chance
Trump is likely to resist Gates' framing if the issue remains politically salient. A deregulatory response would reassure AI infrastructure investors in the short run but increase conflict with state officials, Democrats, and allied governments.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Telecommunications +0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA+1.0%
- META+0.7%
- MSFT+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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