Possible scenario
Trade Fight Escalates
15% Chance
Mexico concludes that tariff relief is not forthcoming and answers with targeted measures against politically sensitive U.S. exports. The risk becomes broader than autos, though still well short of a systemic trade crisis.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -3.8%
- Industrials -1.8%
- Non-Energy Materials -1.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
- GM-5.8%
- STLA-5.0%
- -4.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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