Possible scenario
Tariffs Stay Intact
45% Chance
Howard Lutnick keeps the 25% tariff on Mexico-built autos in place while the administration presses for higher U.S. content under USMCA. Mexico continues talks rather than immediately retaliating, because automakers and border-state officials still want a negotiated path.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.9%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
Tickers
- GM-3.0%
- STLA-2.5%
- F-2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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