Possible scenario
Negotiated Auto Carveout
30% Chance
The Commerce Department and USTR convert Lutnick's hard line into leverage for a narrower compromise. Mexico receives partial relief if producers meet tighter North American and U.S. content thresholds.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +2.4%
- Industrials +0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
Tickers
- GM+3.6%
- F+2.9%
- STLA+2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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