Possible scenario
Strikes Broaden Nationwide
25% Chance
The crackdown triggers wider solidarity action from public-sector unions, transport workers, and left-wing parties. The center of gravity shifts from campus disorder to a broader strike movement, raising short-term disruption risks for transport, retail, tourism, and fuel logistics.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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