Possible scenario
Policing Contains Riots
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the Lecornu government uses targeted arrests, riot-police deployments, and prefect-level orders to reopen many campuses without making major concessions. Protests continue in Paris, Lyon, Rennes, Toulouse, and Montpellier, but the immediate disruption becomes more localized.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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