Possible scenario
Hormuz Transit Disruption
18% Chance
The conflict moves from episodic strikes to a material disruption of commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Even without a formal Iranian closure declaration, insurers, shipowners, and charterers may halt sailings until a convoy system is credible.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-5.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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