Possible scenario
Escalatory Tit-For-Tat
27% Chance
The U.S. expands strikes from IRGC naval craft to shore-based missile, drone, and radar sites after additional attacks or targeting attempts. Iran responds with limited strikes on U.S. regional assets or Gulf shipping but stops short of a formal closure of Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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