Contained Retaliatory Cycle

The most likely path is a limited U.S. reprisal focused on IRGC naval launch sites, patrol boats, and radar nodes, followed by calibrated Iranian harassment rather than a full attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has incentives to preserve leverage without triggering a larger U.S. campaign against coastal missile forces and energy infrastructure.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.