Possible scenario
Demand Weakness Deepens
25% Chance
The rig decline becomes more meaningful if weak global demand expectations dominate the oil tape. Lower crude prices would make marginal shale wells less attractive and could push operators to trim late-2026 activity further.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
Tickers
- HAL-1.2%
- SLB-0.8%
- -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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