Possible scenario
Regulators slow adoption
25% Chance
Regulators decide that tokenized deposits need more detailed rules on settlement finality, operational resilience, redemption rights and liquidity treatment. The technology remains viable, but commercial deployment is pushed back while supervisors avoid creating a bank-issued money substitute without clear safeguards.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.